NFL Playoffs: Week 1 Wrap

Well, we're down to the NFL's elite 8 and there weren't too many surprises along the way. Tom Brady was Tom Brady, Eli was Eli and Chad Pennington delighted everyone (or, me, at least) with one final "Noodles" cameo before calling it a season.

One thing I would like to add: If you're a NFL fan and have even the slightest interest in the Cowboys (good or bad), you owe it to yourself to spend at least 30 minutes surfing this website. It's absolutely brilliant from a comedic standpoint and while I'm thrilled the Cowboys' season is over, I'm sad to see it means the end of the best blog on the internet.

Don't be sad, Tony. You inspired the best blog on the internet.

My week 2 playoff breakdown will arrive later this week. In the meantime, check-in regularly for more musings.

Week 1 picks:
Straight up: 3-1
Against the Spread: 3-1

The Return of Mr. Peepee

Mr. Peepee continues his campaign to make Ty Law a HOFer

Isn't it great to know that in today's wild, wacky and wholly unpredictable NFL, there are still some things you can count on? Imagine, then, how giddy I was today when Mr. Peepee (Playoff Peyton) arrived on the scene for his annual January choke-fest. True, the Colts survived Peyton's 3 horrendous picks, but is there anyone left on the planet who still believes Indy has a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl appearance this year? Hell, does anyone actually think they can beat the Ravens (in Baltimore) next week? Honestly, I'll be shocked if the Colts put up more than 14 points and Mr. Peepee doesn't add at least two more interceptions to his playoff portfolio.

Now, for those of you who think I'm just another Manning-hater, let me fill you in on a little secret: I used to defend Peyton all the time. At one point, I picked the Colts to win the Super Bowl 3 years in a row. And when they fell short, I always blamed his lackluster defense or a superior opponent with homefield advantage (aka, New England). I truly believed Peepee was better than Tom Brady. Check that, not just better, but head and shoulders above the Patriots' signal-caller. And then Peyton and company gagged at home against Pittsburgh last year and I swore up and down that I'd never trust Peyton in the playoffs again. I finally saw the light.

The sad thing is (if you're a Colts' fan, that is) that Peyton's title window might have closed already. Indy's veteran squad means a big cap number, thus severely limiting the Colts ability to make big moves via free agency in the future. Remember the Tennessee Titans circa 2001? They were coming off a Super Bowl appearance and followed that up by posting the league's best record. But instead of hoisting the Lombardi trophy, they ran into the Ravens' juggernaut and never got close to the big game again. A few years later, they had to blow the whole thing up and start over because their veteran club descended into salary cap hell.

The ironic thing is that one of the biggest problems facing the Colts in the future is the rise of those same Tennessee Titans. Vince Young has become a full-fledged force much more quickly than anyone expected and the Titans now have plenty of draft choices and money to burn once again. Then when you consider how nicely situated arch-nemesis, New England, seems to be (2 first round draft picks, cap space, Tom Brady and young stud, Laurence Maroney), it quickly becomes apparent that Indianapolis faces a steep uphill climb to remain among the AFC elite. Yes, time moves that quickly in today' NFL.

It's not whether you win or lose, but how much fun you have right, Brett?

But look on the bright side, Indy fan. I'm sure the Packers' faithful immensely enjoyed watching their own legend repeatedly lead Green Bay to the second round of the playoffs during the 2nd half of his career. And as for the rest of us, we'll take comfort in knowing we get to see Mr. Peepee again next week... and for many more Januaries to come.

The most wonderful time of the year

Seriously, does it get any better than this? We're less than 24 hours away from the NFL playoffs getting started, the BS (You'll never see me refer to it as BCS) championship is almost here and the NBA and college basketball seasons are about to hit their respective strides. And, oh yeah, the 5 remaining hockey fans are loving life with the "new" NHL. Sweet!

Anyway, first things first. Let's break down this weekend's NFL match-ups. Since the Texans aren't within sniffing distance, I guess we might as well start with the Lone Star State's redheaded step-child, the Dallas Cowboys. For "entertainment purposes" only, I'll include the spread in all picks.

Cowboys (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS

Everybody knows Dallas comes into this game ice cold. Tony Romo looks human, Terrell Owens looks psycho and Bill Parcells looks tired and ready to eat an entire tub of Chunky Monkey. Throw in the fact that Seattle has the league's best home field advantage and a team (supposedly) hell-bent on defending its NFC title and you'd have to give the Seahawks a major edge, right? No way.

Here's the slogan for this year's NFL: What goes up, most come down (and vice versa). Or perhaps even more appropriate: Everything you know is wrong. Just when it looks like a team has their poop together, they fall flat on their faces. And just when you're ready to write someone off, they make like Lazarus. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule (as we'll see later on). But as much as I hate to say it, the Cowboys' arrow is about to head straight up again. Get the bandwagon ready.

Now, for those who need more than mere gut instinct, chew on this: Seattle is not exactly soaring into this game either. Their secondary is beat up (bad news when facing T.O. and Terry Glenn) and the 'Hawks' only win in the last 4 games came against the putrid pewter, otherwise known as Tampa Bay. Sure, Dallas's safeties can't cover Britney's crotch right now (although who can?) but they should be able to back off a little bit since Seattle's running game has been merely average all year.

Roy Williams taught Britney something about coverage

In the end, Mr. Carrie Underwood will rise to the occasion, T.O. will find paydirt and Marion Marber is going to score twice. Cowboys win 31-27 and analysts will immediately wonder if Dallas is going to duplicate Pittsburgh's feat from a year ago (they're not).

Giants (+7) over EAGLES

Now we come to the exception of the previously stated 2006 NFL slogan. The Giants are bound to bounce back, aren't they? I mean, in a pathetic NFC, wouldn't it be perfectly fitting to see them rise from the ashes and ride the Tiki Barber retirement express all the way to Miami? Too bad it's not going to happen.

Look, this team is a mess. You know it, I know it, even Mike Tyson knows it (assuming he can't get his hands on any blow in the joint). And all the Tiki-sentiment aside, at some point Eli Manning is going to have to complete a pass (to one of his teammates, that is). And do you really think Philly defensive coordinator, Jim Johnson, is going to let that happen? No way. Right now, li'l brudder Eli is quickly approaching Ozzie Canseco territory. Eagles give their fans one final week of happiness (before the obligatory heart-smashing occurs), 27-17.

COLTS (-7) over Chiefs

Larry Johnson vs. Indy's run defense. A match made in Colts' hell, right? LJ has to be good for at least 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, doesn't he? Here's the problem though: It's just too obvious. Today's NFL is just never that predictable.

Here's what I see: Indy jumps out to an early lead thanks to its own prolific offense, some drive-stalling Chief turnovers and crowd-induced penalties and all of a sudden, K.C. is playing catch-up instead of ball-control. At first, I was buying the hype and thinking this would be a tight game. But too many people are on board that train. Let's not forget, Kansas City was lucky to even qualify for post-season play. Colts in a yawn-fest, 34-13. And once again, get ready for NFL "experts" to declare that Peyton Manning can carry this team to a Super Bowl. As my main man, Chuck D, says, "Don't believe the hype"... or anything that comes out of Michael Irvin's mouth.

PATRIOTS (-8.5) over Jets

The easiest game to pick but the most difficult to handicap. There is absolutely no doubt the Patriots will win. None. But New York seems to know how to at least keep things close with New England. I really struggled with this one.

"Noodles" gets ready to unleash another 10 yard bomb

Now before I make my prediction, there's something you should know: Chad Pennington is my personal nemesis. His noodle arm kills me in Madden (either when I'm playing with him or against him) and it destroyed my beloved Texans this season as well. So I have no doubt he'll foil my pick this week just to prove he owns my football soul. But you know what, screw you, Chad Pennington. I'm not afraid of you or your chicken-noodle arm. You're throwing at least two picks and the Pats are cruising to a 24-7 victory. So there.

On tap for today...

Update coming this evening. In the meantime, here's some good material to get you through the day as well as a preview of what's to come.

If you're looking for a villain in the BCS mess, here's your guy.

If you're wondering why I bailed on the Bears as my Super Bowl choice, this is a good place to start.

Hope my upcoming birthday doesn't distract you, Rexy

You can never go wrong with Bill Simmons.

And I'll provide a breakdown for this weekend's playoff match-ups.

NFL Playoff Preview and Predictions

Now, before I make my playoff proclamations, I'll say that I've been predicting a Patriots-Bears Super Bowl all year. So of course, now that the playoffs are upon us, I'm changing my tune. All Bears' and Pats' fans can safely rejoice now that I've removed the Friedman hex from their teams.

I'll start with the AFC, where I see three teams with a shot at the Super Bowl. San Diego, check. Baltimore, check. But NO WAY, NO HOW does Indy go to the Big Game this year. Teams with an historically bad run defense don't win 3 games in the playoffs to make it to the Super Bowl. Throw in a quarterback who has a knack for gagging in January and their fate is sealed. Indy should take care of business in round one (although it probably won't be easy). But they'll be able to make their tropical island vacation plans shortly thereafter.

It's hard to play QB with two hands wrapped around your neck

So my third team? None other than the 3-time champion Patriots. Any team with Belichick, Tom Brady and a solid defense has a shot. And don't forget about that terrible twosome of Maroney and Dillon in the backfield. They should be able to somewhat make up for the fact that New England's WRs resemble a crew that seems more likely to start for the Amarillo Dusters. Now, I will say the Jets can give New England a hard time in round one. But no way "Noodles" Pennington will lead them to victory. The Jets are scrappy, but that doesn't mean they're good.

So why am I ditching the Pats as my super bowl pick? Well, I think they're geared more toward another title run in 2008 than 2007. They have two first round picks in the upcoming draft (was Deion Branch really worth it, Seattle?) and should be able to reload a bit on offense and defense. But for now, they're beat up (Losing Harrison hurts and Brady is aching too) and I just can't see them running the gauntlet in the tough AFC.

So that leaves the Chargers and Ravens. No doubt, San Diego is the best team in the NFL on paper. As stated in previous posts, their only weaknesses are secondary play (which is masked somewhat by a ferocious pass rush) and inexperience at QB. I think Rivers will be fine. But what really scares me is Marty Schottenheimer. The next time he wins a big January game will be his first. So like Mr. Peepee (Playoff Peyton), I won't believe he can get it done until I see it. I've just been burned too many times. So by process of elimination, that leaves the Ravens... a team I haven't believed in all season long. Welcome to the NFL, folks. The place where logic and reason come to die. I don't trust Baltimore at all, nor do I like them. So if I'm going to jinx a team, it might as well be them.

McNair and Billick discuss the Friedman hex

In the NFC, who knows? Or better yet, who cares? I thought Chicago would be able to hide Sexy Rexy at least until the Super Bowl by just riding its defense and special teams. I still don't understand why a team with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson insists on throwing 30 times a game. But regular season trends tend to rear their ugly head in the playoffs, so you have to think the QB position will haunt Chicago sooner rather than later... especially since their banged (no pun intended, Tank Johnson)-up D is a shadow of what it was in the first half of the season.

Dallas has plenty of talent, but also has too much TO, too much burnt toast (aka, Roy Williams) and too much man-boobage courtesy of the Big Tuna. Oh, and their kicker is Martin Gramatica. No thanks.

Giants. Umm, no.

Philly? Another team that loves nothing more than raising the expectations of its fans only to gleefully rip their hearts out.

Seattle? They just never were able to put it all together this season. I don't expect that to change in the playoffs.

So once again, process of elimination leaves us with... New Orleans! Seriously, I'm picking the Saints??? When was the last time they won a big game? Oh that's right. Never. Yet here I am, not only picking them to make it to Miami, but also to win the whole damn thing. Why? Because the NFL never makes sense. And also because the only thing that would kill me more than watching Reggie Bush win a Super Bowl in year one would be watching Vince Young raise the Lombardi trophy. And if the Titans hadn't choked against the Pats this past Sunday, we may very well have seen it. Because I'm now convinced the only reason the NFL exists is to tear out my heart, stomp on it and then let out a hearty guffaw. Yes, I'm melodramatic and delusional. And perhaps a wee bit self-absorbed as well.

Saints 17 - Ravens 13.

MVP: Drew Brees

Get ready to see a lot more of this

Am I supposed to be excited now?

Alright, let's get the Texans' stuff out of the way quickly. Sure, it was nice to get that 600 pound Colt off our back, but let's be honest here; that Indy run defense is one of the worst of all time. Between that defense and Peyton's annual choke-fest, the Colts aren't going anywhere important in January. And yes, that win did diminish Houston's upcoming draft standing, but how much good did tanking the end of least season do us? If you have good management, you can have a good draft no matter whether you're picking first of 31st. Now if only the Texans could procure a good management team...

On, and one other thing: Up until the midway point of this year, I've had David Carr's back from the beginning. I still say Houston did him no favors by providing him with one of the worst O-lines of all time and a dearth of weapons. But he is what he is at this point; like fellow Fresno State alum, Trent Dilfer, at best he is a game-manager, not a playmaker. And unless you possess an all-world defense, that's not going to take you too far in today's NFL. And for anyone who would like to see Houston burn to the ground, here's a suggestion: pray for a Saints-Titans Super Bowl. It's a long-shot, but this city would implode if it had to watch Vince and Reggie lead their teams to the promised land in year one.

I wish I knew how to quit you, David

Some other random NFL notes: I want to hear from you, Cowboy fans. Do you regret the T.O. signing yet? Seriously, am I the only one who thinks Dallas would be a better team right now if they had never signed him in the first place? But as a Cowboy and T.O.-hater, it sure is fun to watch him drag that team down at the first sign of trouble.

Another Cowboy note: I like Tony Romo. Think he has a future in this league. But man, give NFL defensive co-ordinators 4 weeks of game film to look at and all of a sudden quarterbacking a football team doesn't look so simple anymore. I think Romo, Rex Grossman and Phillip Rivers are finding that out the hard way.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again: The Falcons would be a better team if Matt Schaub were their starting QB. I just do not trust Mike Vick. And yes, his defense is average and his receivers blow. But I think it says something when a still-raw Vince Young is already a better pocket passer than 6 year vet, Vick. As a fan of a team that will almost certainly be looking for a QB in the off-season, I'd much rather see the Texans make a run at Matt Schaub as opposed to someone like Jake Plummer. Of course, I'd prefer every other person on the planet not named Ryan Leaf over Plummer. Ah, to be a Texan fan. There's still plenty of room left on the bandwagon, boys.

Hope everyone had a great Christmas.

The Day the Music Died

Well, it's been almost 48 hours since the day my football soul was ripped out, thrown to the ground and stomped on. So now that I've had a wee bit of time to grieve, I'll try to put Sunday's events in perspective.

This has been the worst season I've ever experienced as a football fan. When I was 5 (and didn't know any better) I cheered for the Cowboys and saw Joe Montana and Dwight Clark turn my super bowl dreams into nightmares. In '93, I witnessed the Oilers fall apart in Orchard Park, New York as an unknown back-up quarterback led the Bills to the greatest comeback ever. But this one takes the cake. Yes, the Texans have doubled their win total from a year ago, but at least last season there was hope. The hope of a number one pick and the accompanying clean slate, star power and excitement. Well, we all know how that turned out. Furthermore, we all knew this day was coming the second Houston announced their deal with not-so-super Mario on draft day eve.

Umm, anyone see Mario Williams?

Watching Vince and Reggie do their thing was no surprise. They're playmakers. That's what they do. And now all of Houston will get to watch them from afar for the next 8-15 years. Meanwhile, we're left with... what exactly? Another top 5 pick? Last year's draft was loaded. It was once in a decade. This year the studs are few and far between. The number one pick will be Brady Quinn, who will go to Oakland and be a bust. Whither the Texans? Troy Smith? Adrian Peterson? An O-lineman NOT named D'Brickashaw? The fact is, Houston still has just as many holes as they possessed as an expansion franchise. We can blame CBS "Insider" Charley Casserly for that. But Coach Kubiak hitched his horse to Mario and in so doing, left the club boring, faceless and the laughing stock/whipping boy of the NFL. The sad thing is that Kubiak is a good coach and the Texans' draft was solid starting with defensive rookie of the year, DeMeco Ryans. But Kubes will forever be remembered as the guy who passed up Vince and Reggie... two guys who would have given Houston the electricity and playmaking ability this club has lacked from day one.

Here's a fun project: Revisit the first 11 picks. Where would Mario go now? Not even top 5. Sure, he's still young and has plenty of time to grow and improve. But will he ever be better than Young, Bush, Leinart, D'Brickashaw, etc? Not bloody likely. I love this game!

Enough Texans' talk. At least I made it through without swearing. That's quite an accomplishment, believe me.

As for the Cowboys, I stil expect them to make their run to the NFC title game, but no further. They're vulnerable to the deep ball??? This is news? I think Santana Moss and every other burner who has torched Dallas would beg to differ. Look, Roy Williams is a linebacker trapped in a safety's body. Great hitter (though not a great tackler), but absolutely pathetic in coverage. Still, in a weak NFC, Dallas is going to have a legitimate shot.

And in the AFC, I still don't trust Marty Schottenheimer come playoff time. No doubt about it, the Chargers are the best team on paper. Their only true weakness is in the secondary, but the pass rush they bring neutralizes that. Yet the January air seems to constrict Marty's throat and I'm not going to trust him until I actually see him lift the Lombardi trophy in the air.

As for AI, I just don't think the Spurs have the pieces to acquire him, Jensen. What would they offer? Ginobili and who else? Besides, I said this before the season started: The Spurs will win it all anyway.

Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season. Sorry to subject you to the misery wrought by the Texans.